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Panics of the Past
By Solveig Singleton
February 2, 1999

The Mercury Theater's broadcast on October 30, 1938 began, appropriately enough, with a warning that what would follow was fiction. Some listeners tuned in late and missed it. They heard only dance music -- interrupted by an announcer describing a report of bursts of incandescent gas on the surface of Mars, and a phalanx of objects landing in New Jersey.

It continued menacingly: "Ladies and gentlemen, I have a grave announcement to make. Incredible as it may seem, both the observations of science and the evidence of our eyes lead to the inescapable assumption that those strange beings who landed in the Jersey farmlands tonight are the vanguard of an invading army from the planet Mars."

This was the young Orson Wells's rendition of The War of the Worlds, a broadcast famous for having spooked Americans as they never were before. One listener claimed to be choking on the Martian's gases; another insisted she could feel the glow of their heat rays. A New York city resident thought he could see the glow of fires in New Jersey.

Robert Bartholomew of James Cook University in Australia believes that the panic was exaggerated by the media. He told BBC News that "1.2 of 1.7 million listeners may have been frightened to varying degrees," but most did nothing. Rather than running about the streets or heading for the hills, they just sat there.

Bartholomew predicts such a panic will happen again: "It is not a question of if but when there will be another scare like it. It will take a different form but we are still vulnerable. We have to learn the lessons of the War of the Worlds."

Could Y2K trigger a such a panic? Many commentators have said that it could spark bank runs and hoarding: In other words, the public's fear response could be worse than the problem itself. Airlines already fret that customers will cancel travel plans.

Is this likely? Y2K will come as no surprise to most Americans, who indicated in a recent poll that they're quite aware of the problem. More likely, Y2K fatigue will set in among audiences who have heard endless reports of lone survivalists preparing mountain retreats. The urge to hoard cash or supplies will hit a few, but not all at the same time.

The innocence of the 1930s radio audience is long gone. Most Americans, secure in their high standard of living and a thriving economy, cheerfully dismiss prognostications of doom. On the other hand, maybe Gary North's doomsaying web site is today's equivalent of the Mercury Theater. Will innocent victims be befuddled by the Internet? Or will the Internet save only a few? What if, that day in 1938, Martians had really been invading, and no one did anything?

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