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US banks sent reeling in Asian chain-reaction

Predicted by: Anonymous
Date predicted: 1 June 1998
Supposed to happen by: 1 October 1998

Event: Major US banks Morgan Guaranty, Chase Manhattan and Bankers Trust are sent reeling as several Asia-Pacific financial institutions renege on Derivatives contracts. A banking chain-reaction weakens the entire banking infrastructure to the breaking point. Experts fear collapse if even minor Y2k problems arise.

Outcome: Close: I have to give partial credit on this.

The LTCM hedge fund (i.e. derivatives) operated by Nobel laureates Merton and Scholes had to be bailed out in late September at a cost of billions, the stock market has dropped precipitously, and there are headlines about the precarious situation of global finance. There has been no reneging as far as I know, but the Asians are mad that crony-capitalism was used for U.S. firm LTCM, while they have been criticised for the same sort of action.


This and other predictions compiled by Bradley K. Sherman.

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